Polkadot Validators / DARKFOREST/103

Active Set Risk

Nominator withdrawal impact analysis

Overall Risk Score
10/10
⚠ High Risk - Vulnerable to nominator withdrawal

What is Active Set Risk?

This metric measures how vulnerable a validator is to losing their active set position if key nominators withdraw their stake. High risk means the validator could drop out of the active set if large nominators or many unstable nominators leave.

Single Point of Failure

Biggest Nominator:
15FzDRgmMH...dpxtnEM1
Stake Amount:
110,937.97 DOT
% of Total Stake:
14.0%
Current Slot:
#700 / 600
Estimated Slot Impact:
Slot #700 → #710

🚨 CRITICAL: Validator would DROP OUT of active set!

Risk Level:
CRITICAL

Aggregate Unstable Risk

Unstable Nominators (0-90 days):
45
Breakdown by Time:
0-30 days (High Risk):
26 nominators (62,215.03 DOT)
30-60 days (Moderate Risk):
12 nominators (30,287.86 DOT)
60-90 days (Low Risk):
7 nominators (13,459.88 DOT)
At-Risk Stake (Weighted):
92,798.72 DOT
% of Total Stake at Risk:
11.7%
Estimated Slot Impact:
Slot #700 → #710

🚨 CRITICAL: Combined unstable nominator withdrawal would cause validator to DROP OUT of active set!

Risk Level:
CRITICAL

Note: Weighted risk considers nominators who changed nominations in the last 90 days. Recent changes (0-30d) have 100% weight, 30-60d have 60% weight, 60-90d have 30% weight.

⚠ Warning: This validator has 45 unstable nominator(s) representing 11.7% of total stake. These nominators changed their nominations recently and may withdraw again.

Unstable Nominators - Last 90 Days (45)

Nominator Address Bonded Amount Last Change Date Days Since Change
1EXZAPQectbyCMZ4aWceDQpuD9VPUjHUtZWywkiQBPQ3v1Z 15,021.12 DOT 2026-05-05 37
16dCDXps3qPcTGCWK6JHigEY8nnZytG5xRwyTrdwiySn7knZ 10,250.19 DOT 2026-05-29 13
14Wv3gpeeZiThsNgpwxUHDBs3dBiYynKcYLTKeNgk3Lc5Lru 8,527.84 DOT 2026-05-30 12
13AhhhavjKkW4KNLfn6P8C3ATmXBzJVhL7pudJG6LDSpGU7N 6,763.99 DOT 2026-04-22 50
12yXnpMuKd886oUrRojB9ssDE7Bxhzy4igUBGYvvsBmqazbp 5,460.88 DOT 2026-06-08 3
1DHGc1VVEjJU4rc1unFgrWMFji5QmxuGJ8SQAkNKHeFFjSP 4,914.70 DOT 2026-03-27 76
14Ev2HTqT9N74spJb3sGTAsoHX8xN3vdXJ5gWzGFPFsTLbiy 4,610.88 DOT 2026-05-30 12
13g9TDRjfht7iMCLsGvbi12JZTKGUgt3cr7MPVbpQuedJjq7 3,603.86 DOT 2026-06-09 2
1G5bt5Ju7kdwPrb8xheiYAvCn7EzxK9nnUnnktEBmzHgHQf 3,388.08 DOT 2026-05-05 37
124c7GKmZ32oXzPzuq4mpaGgfHUs5Jv1KZAHVKA9SMhQJAbo 3,312.28 DOT 2026-06-09 2
16MBr2K3am641AXfk9cWqpAXGk4qEDjxHZFBdXWmf3SMQtC8 3,303.01 DOT 2026-06-09 2
12q1izJBrMEWf6R1NPtR7d2vnEDfu3w7zhneZQqRvRg45Wz5 3,061.61 DOT 2026-06-09 2
16Y6NgT8q6UGa7FP3WWuob7qbFqtbRnahMm2LzLfEq4RNkLn 3,031.10 DOT 2026-04-02 70
1Ryd1reG978yfwHP3NfEgXairzC6BsnkYtzkM3zkJd3igNH 2,820.68 DOT 2026-06-09 2
13fTa1udd8yWdX8zjiYeCZKqPAMFka4z3dbVxiasRCxn2JwJ 2,324.99 DOT 2026-04-05 67
15krn6X9PP8gzDSP9hxQWwbTBHENQdGqCs3ePv68JN6tj1vQ 2,254.25 DOT 2026-06-09 2
14N1fWFKAGnQoSyNxxXb3Nghp7Afw71i8e5JiAsfMujtQqP 2,243.73 DOT 2026-06-09 2
12YaUfCV4qQnrFhmCWTyLnGuePZQXYoL17AevALRdCUaSVAn 1,988.32 DOT 2026-06-09 2
15chDBwNJBU7oTYf7TSRXHXbt7wXYnR73uprZCDiN7f2A2bK 1,915.12 DOT 2026-03-17 86
15ZuVGU94tszSdEmHoxUoS7zTzamaimUoaUAnTJLmyupjtG7 1,471.37 DOT 2026-06-09 2
148FJo7Kfm8dzyJLFy5eaSP4i7eNMbS6caemDr99KZoV7gGV 1,465.82 DOT 2026-05-26 16
15HvchFS3t9WnDa1ef2kin4vZy1QfajS9LzkVBmNcdZZSmwD 1,413.03 DOT 2026-05-30 12
16B3NT9dUEBNkUrv8WizM4yoy8YZ6fgPv2nFRRnPETuJppaW 1,236.77 DOT 2026-06-09 2
16XxybqEtDuYvJCh3ZowouJETZhufwNTkjVr8AnsL8zGtbWY 1,214.26 DOT 2026-06-09 2
12ps8nDAooXAt43ga9KshTehwdWJud3Y8uiBfvmFDunqi9Wv 1,092.52 DOT 2026-06-09 2
1Ld7LhNxT3ZSk6T6EGz7mNrsx3womq6amnE7oN8doSHNUzu 1,053.40 DOT 2026-04-24 48
13uQG1MzZkyYEaHm7dSuF6HDnQwhC7vBbWkWdBUm9FoYdeWJ 921.39 DOT 2026-06-09 2
1dNDaPZp56Tcc7h7mKVrrSZzzCGn2YXk3iF9nworp2GkQ4a 917.19 DOT 2026-04-30 42
14Po2BHCXs9wzqUTC2fb5tWV95atQGR4VHVyynBHnoyKZJfD 864.80 DOT 2026-05-05 37
14mXyfopz53a55GTVxuo2i7R5UT1j1qV8yuWhSomrNXoXaMC 857.23 DOT 2026-05-09 33
1NSk3v4F2EAvRSLiwtVebASXYVWs1hQBzBPLZNT9n46NjaN 619.54 DOT 2026-03-31 72
13nByu19mi5QLRfwMHtKKahpnVd84DXNePkdNquVMMU7KWp5 471.01 DOT 2026-05-05 37
13K13s63ZUo34fxzKYXtdcSWxjJSPrPGnab95VyZ9z9vsCs2 350.00 DOT 2026-06-09 2
1DUj7PikH9z4MTyL2rAXG4iqNhGTVbuBMJqSg5Xax4GKAkh 330.00 DOT 2026-03-27 76
148YMrjoKUuzL81i2YJP1L5pnjDsvZQyEnwoomjTwnmMA83k 324.43 DOT 2026-03-27 76
13uoerGX4ZouZ2X56HXwTw1S7H4Yhk9bErsoR9ZZE1XJQRmb 317.39 DOT 2026-06-08 3
13DAZmedA3GwDW3ByuKcCEKJUTyHdKLtpFFfPLKntgWvECuH 315.66 DOT 2026-05-05 37
14t9Vc1hM4CBjZPfajjxZrsHVUZ6PbCATx6FzBTtXgdj6zRP 295.06 DOT 2026-05-06 36
1128iq4PS7kdzjQJ1bQperhKsvQaSbfKAbwRFbJgkpgrJz9D 285.87 DOT 2026-06-09 2
12Cv9tvcUMBn1uCVvharexo69ZZcjbF9RstCs83D4EcppUp8 282.87 DOT 2026-05-30 12
129YVFFEW1BaKA3oeyb2VFD4wS3dVGLWpgjuSuF5v97f6aqh 256.22 DOT 2026-06-09 2
14djdF9cL1wq9ZNYq7iyjDNACPfdvMA1hNTTh8aejnK1xpap 250.00 DOT 2026-06-08 3
15aQmguhkNMTFYta4eKqYVU49C6WBiXUKA4AKDr3HFv3e53g 220.00 DOT 2026-06-09 2
15xYBnHNkbodTarP2qFmvnPt4HCYuFGtXzk279CFrk5tvdP1 184.32 DOT 2026-04-24 48
12yfKMuDMYdtZcpfc1MscVgPbuCDu8rcyNE7GgJB5mE1d8K7 156.00 DOT 2026-05-05 37